The Huberthe peak theory says that for any given geographic region, from individual oil-producing regions to the planet as a whole, the level of petroleum production tends to follow the bell-shaped curve. This is one of the main theories about peak oil.
Selecting a specific curve determines the maximum production point based on discovery level, production level and cumulative production. At the beginning of the curve (pre-peak), production levels increase due to the level of discovery and addition of infrastructure. End of curve (post-peak), production decreases due to resource depletion.
Hubbert's peak theory is based on the observation that the amount of underground oil in each region is limited, therefore the rate of discovery which initially increases rapidly should reach maximum and decrease. In the US, oil extraction follows the discovery curve after a 32 to 35 year time lag. This theory is named after the American geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who created a modeling method of production curve given the assumed final recovery volume.
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Puncak Hubbert
"Peak Hubbert" can refer to the peak production of a certain region, which has now been observed for many fields and territories.
Hubbert's peak is estimated to have been reached in the United States which is adjacent to 48 countries (ie, excluding Alaska and Hawaii) in the early 1970s. Oil production reached 10,200,000 barrels per day (1,620,000 m 3 /d) and then declined over the years since. However, recent extraction technology advances, especially those that result in the extracting of oil and hard oil from flakes, have drastically changed the picture. The decline in production follows the 1970s peak of more than 10 million barrels. In November 2017 the United States once again surpassed the 10 million barrel mark for the first time since 1970.
Peak oil as a proper noun, or "Peak Hubbert" is applied more generally, referring to predicted events: the peak oil production of the entire planet. After peak oil, according to Hubbert Peak Theory, the level of oil production on Earth will enter the terminal decline. On the basis of his theory, in a paper he presented to the American Petroleum Institute in 1956, Hubbert correctly predicted that oil production from conventional sources would reach its peak in the continental United States around 1965-1970. His prediction of the inevitable slump has been wrong, but the 1970's peak has not been exceeded. Hubbert further predicted peaks worldwide in "about half a century" of publications and about 12 gigabarrels (GB) a year in magnitude. In a 1976 TV interview Hubbert added that OPEC's actions might flatten the global production curve but this would only postpone its peak perhaps for 10 years. The development of new technologies has provided access to large amounts of non-conventional resources, and the production drive has greatly reduced Hubbert's prediction.
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Hubbert Theory
Hubbert curve
In 1956, Hubbert proposed that the production of fossil fuels in a particular region over time would follow a coarse bell-shaped curve without giving the right formula; he then uses the Hubbert curve, a derivative of the logistics curve, to predict future production using observed discoveries in the past.
Hubbert assumed that after fossil fuel reserves (oil reserves, coal reserves, and natural gas reserves) were discovered, production initially increased approximately exponentially, as more extraction began and more efficient facilities were installed. At some point, peak output is reached, and production begins to decline to near an exponential decrease.
The Hubbert curve satisfies these constraints. Furthermore, it is symmetrical, with peak production achieved when half of the fossil fuel that will eventually be produced has been produced. It also has one peak.
Given the discovery of oil and past production data, the Hubbert curve which attempts to estimate previous discovery data can be constructed and used to provide forecasts for future production. In particular, the date of peak oil production or the total amount of oil produced can eventually be estimated as such. Cavallo defines the Hubbert curve used to predict the US peak as a derivative of:
di mana max adalah sumber daya total yang tersedia (pemulihan akhir dari minyak mentah), produksi kumulatif, dan dan adalah konstanta. Tahun produksi tahunan maksimum (puncak) adalah:
jadi sekarang produksi kumulatif mencapai setengah dari total sumber daya yang tersedia:
Penggunaan banyak kurva
The sum of several Hubbert curves, a technique not developed by Hubbert himself, can be used to model more complicated real-life scenarios. For example, when new technologies such as hydraulic fracing combined with unproductive new formations prior to new technologies, this can create the need for many curves. This technology is limited in number, but has a major impact on production and causes the need for new curves to be added to the old curve and all curves to be reworked.
Reliability
Crude oil
Hubbert, in his paper in 1956, presented two scenarios for US crude production:
- most likely approximate: logistic curve with logistic growth rate of 6%, primary resource equal to 150 Giga-barrel (Gb) and peak in 1965. The primary resource size is taken from an approximate synthesis by geologists renowned oil and US Geological Survey, which Hubbert regarded as the most likely case.
- estimated upper limit: logistic curve with logistic growth rate of 6% and primary resource equivalent to 200 Giga-barrel and peak in 1970.
Hubbert's upper limit estimate, which he considered optimistic, accurately predicted that US oil production would peak in 1970, although the real peak was 17% higher than the Hubbert curve. Production declined, as predicted by Hubbert, and held within 10 percent of Hubbert's prediction value from 1974 to 1994; since then, production is actually much larger than the Hubbert curve. The development of new technologies has provided access to large amounts of non-conventional resources, and the production drive has greatly reduced Hubbert's prediction.
Hubbert's 1956 production curve depended on the geological estimate of recoverable oil resources, but he was not satisfied with this introduced uncertainty, given the various forecasts ranging from 110 billion to 590 billion barrels for the United States. Beginning in 1962 publication, he made calculations, including the final restoration, based solely on mathematical analysis of production levels, proven reserves, and new discoveries, independent of the geological estimates of future inventions. He concluded that the recoverable oil resource of the 48 contiguous states was 170 billion barrels, with peak production in 1966 or 1967. He considered that because the model was incorporated through technical progress, any future progress would occur at the same rate , and also included. Hubbert kept his calculations at 170 billion barrels in 1965 and 1967 publications, although in 1967 he had moved his peak slightly forward, to 1968 or 1969.
Post-hoc analysis of oil wells, fields, regions, and peak countries found that Hubbert's model was "the most useful" (providing the most appropriate data), although many of the areas studied had a sharper "peak" than those estimated.
A 2007 study on oil depletion by the UK Energy Research Center shows that there is no practical theoretical reason and is not strong enough to assume that oil production will follow the logistics curve. There is no reason to assume that the peak will occur when half the final restored resources have been produced; and in fact, empirical evidence seems to contradict this idea. An analysis of 55 post-peak countries found that the peak average was 25 percent of the final recovery.
Natural gas
Hubbert also predicted that natural gas production would follow a logistics curve similar to oil. To the right is the gas production curve for the United States, published in 1962.
Economy
Energy return on energy investment
The ratio of energy extracted to the energy released in the process is often referred to as Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI or EROEI). If the EROEI drops to one, or the net energy equivalent goes down to zero, oil production is no longer a source of net energy.
There is a difference between a barrel of oil, which is a measure of oil, and an oil equivalent barrel (BOE), which is a measure of energy. Many energy sources, such as fission, solar, wind, and coal, are not subject to the same short-term supply restrictions as oil. Thus, even an oil source with EROEI 0.5 can be used beneficially if the energy needed to produce oil comes from cheap and abundant energy sources. The availability of cheap, but difficult to transport, natural gas in some oil fields has led to the use of natural gas to encourage increased oil recovery. Similarly, large amounts of natural gas is used to drive most of the Athabasca tar sand plants. Cheap natural gas has also led to ethanol fuel produced with clean EROEI of less than 1, although figures in this area are controversial because the method for measuring EROEI is being debated.
The assumption of the inevitable decline in oil and gas volumes generated per business unit is contrary to recent experience in the US. In the United States, by 2017, there has been a continuous increase in oil and gas drilling productivity in all tightening oil and gas tightening. The US Energy Information Administration reports, for example, that in the Bakken Shale production area in North Dakota, the volume of oil produced per rig drilling time in January 2017 was 4 times the oil volume per drilling day five years earlier, in January 2012, and nearly 10 times volume of oil per day ten years earlier, in January 2007. In the Marcellus gas region in the northeast, the volume of gas produced per day of drilling time in January 2017 is 3 times the volume of gas per day drilling five years earlier, in January 2012, and 28 times the volume of gas per drilling day ten years earlier, in January 2007.
Growth-based economic model
As long as economic growth is driven by growth in oil consumption, post-peak societies must adapt. Hubbert believes:
Our main obstacle is culture. Over the last two centuries we know nothing but exponential growth and in parallel we have evolved what constitutes a culture of exponential growth, a culture that relies heavily on the continuation of exponential growth for its stability which can not be accounted for by non-growth problems.
Some economists describe the problem as uneconomic or false economic growth. On the political front, Fred Ikle has warned about "conservative addicted to Utopia Growth Perpetual". The brief oil interruptions in 1973 and 1979 were significantly slowed - but not stopped - the growth of world GDP.
Between 1950 and 1984, when the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the world, world grain production increased 250%. Energy for the Green Revolution is provided by fossil fuels in the form of fertilizers (natural gas), pesticides (oils), and hydrocarbon-fueled irrigation.
David Pimentel, professor of ecology and agriculture at Cornell University, and Mario Giampietro, senior researcher at the National Institute for Food and Nutrition Research (INRAN), put in their study the Population, Land, Population and Economy of the US US maximum for sustainable economy at 200 million. To reach the world population sustainable economy should be reduced by two thirds, said the study. Without a population reduction, this study predicts the agricultural crisis begun in 2020, to be critical c. 2050. The peak of global oil along with the decline in regional natural gas production can accelerate the agricultural crisis faster than generally expected. Dale Allen Pfeiffer claims that the coming decade could see the price of spiral food without the help and massive famine at a global level like never before experienced.
Hubbert Peak
Although Hubbert's top theory received much attention in relation to peak oil production, it has also been applied to other natural resources.
Natural gas
Doug Reynolds estimates in 2005 that the peak of North America will occur in 2007. Bentley predicted the world's "decline in conventional gas production from about 2020".
Coal
Although observers believe that coal peaks are significantly farther than peak oil, Hubbert studied specific examples of anthracite in the US, high-grade coal, whose production peaked in the 1920s. Hubbert found that anthracite matched the indentations. Hubbert has coal reserves that can be acquired worldwide at 2,500 ÃÆ'â € "10 12 tons/tonnes and peak around 2150 (depending on usage).
The newer forecasts show the previous peak. Coal: Resources and Future Production
The work by David Rutledge of Caltech predicts that the total world coal production is only about 450 gigatons. This implies that coal is getting used up faster than is usually assumed.
Diffused material
In a paper in 1956, after reviewing the US's fissionable reserves, Hubbert's account of nuclear power:
By 2015, uranium sources are identified enough to provide more than 135 years of supply with current consumption levels. Technologies such as thorium fuel cycle, reprocessing and rapid breeding can, in theory, extend the life of uranium reserves from hundreds to thousands of years.
Caltech physics professor David Goodstein stated in 2004
Helium
Almost all helium on Earth is the result of radioactive decay of uranium and thorium. Helium is extracted by fractional distillation of natural gas, containing up to 7% helium. The world's largest helium-rich natural gas field is found in the United States, especially in Hugoton and nearby gas fields in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. The extracted helium is stored underground in the National Helium Reserve near Amarillo, Texas, which proclaims itself as "Helium Capital of the World". Helium production is expected to decline along with natural gas production in these areas.
Helium, which is a second-light chemical element, will rise to the upper layers of Earth's atmosphere, where it can forever detach itself from Earth's gravitational attraction. About 1,600 tons of helium are lost per year as a result of atmospheric escape mechanisms.
Transition metal
Hubbert applies his theory to "rocks containing high concentrations of certain metals" and argues that peak production for metals such as copper, tin, lead, zinc and other will occur within the time frame of the decade and iron in the time frame. two centuries like coal. Copper prices rose 500% between 2003 and 2007 and were attributed to some to peak copper. Copper prices then declined, along with many commodities and other stock prices, as demand shrank from fears of a global recession. The availability of lithium is a concern for the fleet of Li-ion batteries by car but a paper published in 1996 estimates that the world's reserves are sufficient for at least 50 years. Similar predictions for platinum use in fuel cells note that the metal can be easily recycled.
Precious Metals
In 2009, President of Aaron's Regent of Canadian gold giant Barrick Gold said that global output has fallen by about one million ounces a year since the start of the decade. The total global mining supply has fallen by 10% due to the eroding ore quality, implying that the bull market roared from the last eight years may have gone further to run. "There is a strong case to be made that we are already at the 'gold peak'," he told The Daily Telegraph at the annual RBC gold conference in London. "Production peaked around 2000 and has declined since then, and we expect the decline to continue, the harder it is to find the ore," he said.
The ore grades have dropped from about 12 grams per tonne in 1950 to a closer 3 grams in the US, Canada, and Australia. South African output has been halved since peaking in 1970. Output fell further 14 percent in South Africa in 2008 as companies were forced to dig deeper - at a greater cost - to replace depleted reserves.
Gold production mined by the world has reached four times since 1900: in 1912, 1940, 1971, and 2001, each peak being higher than the previous peak. The last peak was in 2001, when production reached 2,600 metric tons, then declined over the next few years. Production began to increase again in 2009, driven by high gold prices, and reach new record highs every year in 2012, 2013, and in 2014, when production reached 2,990 tons.
Phosphorus
The supply of phosphorus is very important for agriculture and the depletion of reserves is estimated to be around 60 to 130 years. According to a 2008 study, the total phosphorus reserves are estimated at about 3,200 MT, with peak production at 28 MT/year by 2034. The supply of each country varies greatly; without a recycling initiative, American supplies are estimated to be around 30 years old. Phosphorus supply affects agricultural produce which in turn limits alternative fuels such as biodiesel and ethanol. Increased prices and scarcity (rock phosphate global prices increased 8-fold in the 2 years to mid-2008) could change the pattern of global agriculture. The soil, considered marginal by remoteness, but with very high phosphorus content, such as Gran Chaco can gain more agricultural development, while other agricultural areas, where nutrients become obstacles, may fall below the profitability line.
Water tops
Hubbert's original analysis does not apply to renewable resources. However, excessive exploitation often results in Hubbert's peak. The modified Hubbert curve applies to any resource that can be harvested faster than it can be replaced.
For example, reserves such as Ogallala Aquifer can be mined at levels far beyond charging. This has transformed many of the world's underground water and lakes into a limited resource with a peak-like debate similar to oil. This debate is usually centered around farming and suburban water usage but the generation of electricity from nuclear energy or coal mining and tar sand mentioned above is also an intensive water resource. The term fossil water is sometimes used to describe aquifers whose water is not replenished.
Renewable resources
- Fisheries : At least one researcher has attempted to outline Hubbert (curve Hubbert) on the whaling industry, and to chart transparently dependent caviar prices on sturgeon thinning. Atlantic northwest cod fishery is a renewable resource, but the number of fish taken exceeds the recovery rate of the fish. The end of the cod fishery does not correspond to the exponential decline of the Hubbert bell curve. Another example is the cod of North Sea.
- Air/oxygen : Half the world's oxygen is generated by phytoplankton. The number of plankton has dropped 40% since the 1950s.
Criticism of peak oil
Economist Michael Lynch argues that the theory behind the Hubbert curve is too simple and depends on Malthus's exaggerated point of view. Lynch claims that Campbell's predictions for world oil production are heavily biased against under-estimation, and that Campbell has repeatedly pushed back dates.
Leonardo Maugeri, vice president of Italian energy company Eni, argues that almost all peak estimates do not take into account non-conventional oils despite the availability of these significant resources and the cost of extraction and processing, while still very high, are declining. due to improved technology. He also noted that the recovery rate of the world's existing oil fields has increased from about 22% in 1980 to 35% today due to new technologies and predicts this trend will continue. The ratio between proven oil reserves and current production has continued to increase, passing 20 years in 1948 to 35 years in 1972 and reaching about 40 years in 2003. This improvement occurs even with low investment in new exploration and technological improvements due to the oil low prices over the last 20 years. However, Maugeri felt that encouraging more exploration would require relatively high oil prices.
Edward Luttwak, an economist and historian, claims that unrest in countries such as Russia, Iran and Iraq has caused huge losses to oil reserves. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) responded by claiming that Russia and Iran were not troubled by the current unrest, but Iraq.
Cambridge Energy Research Associates wrote a critical report on Hubbert's predictions:
CERA does not believe there will be an endless abundance of oil, but believes that global production will eventually follow the "wavy plains" for a decade or so before slowing down, and the production will reach 40 Mb/d by 2015.
Alfred J. Cavallo, while predicting the lack of conventional oil supplies by 2015, does not think Hubbert's peak is the correct theory to apply to world production.
Critics of top element scenarios
Although M. King Hubbert itself makes a big difference between the decrease in petroleum production versus depletion (or its relative shortage) for elements such as uranium and thorium that can be destroyed, others have predicted peaks such as peak uranium and peak phosphorus soon on the basis of published reserves. figure compared to current and future production. According to some economists, the number of proven reserves inventoried at a time can be considered a "bad indicator of total future mineral resource supply".
Because some illustrations of tin, copper, iron, tin and zinc all had production from 1950 to 2000 and reserves in 2000 far exceeded the world's reserves in 1950, which is impossible except how "proven reserves such as car inventory for car dealerships" at that time, has little connection with the total total that is affordable for extracting in the future. In the peak phosphor samples, an additional concentration exists between 71,000 Mt of identifiable reserves (USGS) and about 30,000,000,000 other Mt phosphorus in the Earth's crust, with an average of 0.1% phosphorus rock, thus showing a decrease in human phosphorus production. will soon take place will require far more than comparing the previous figure with 190 m/year of phosphorus extracted at the mine (figure 2011).
See also
Note
References
- "Features of US oil production." (November, 2002) ASPO Newsletter # 23.
- Greene, D.L. & amp; J.L. Hopson. (2003). Run Out and Be Oil: Analyzing Global Thinning and Transition Until 2050 ORNL/TM-2003/259, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, October
- Economists Challenge the Causal Relationship between Oil Shocks and Recession (August 30, 2004). Middle East Economic Survey VOL. XLVII No. 35
- Hubbert, M.K. (1982). Prediction Techniques as Applied to Oil and Gas Production, US Department of Commerce, Special Publications NBS 631, May 1982
Source of the article : Wikipedia
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